Security analyst firm reputation and investors’ response to forecasted stocks in the biotechnology sector

ABSTRACT

Stock analyst reputation bridges the gap between technical knowledge of the high-technology and the investor's response to its stock, implying that the reputation of the stand-alone analyst serves this purpose. However, global firms have a stronger influence on their stock analysts than do small firms with 2 personnel. Does firm reputation affect the individual analyst and attract investor attention to forecasted stocks? Evidence from SAFs (security analyst firms) in the biotechnology sector supports this question and proposition. Four moderators (interactive predictors of organisational reputation) show positive correlations. They are the SAF's age, size, performance, and media coverage. These organisational level measures contribute to the institutional theory compared to the literature that focuses on the individual analyst without their organisations. In line with institutional theory, we make three explicit points. First, high uncertainty in the biotechnology sector turns investors to the organisational legitimacy and reputation of the analyst. Second, the organisational age, size, performance and media coverage of the security firm reduces uncertainty of the investor in the biotechnology sector. Third, the reputation of security firm flow to its individual analysts as well as from the individual analyst to the security firm. Thus, the organisational context matters in a social setting.     

分析师行业专长、分析师盈余预测与盈余公告的信息溢出效应

盈余公告是资本市场的重要信息来源。通过研究A股市场年报发布先后顺序所产生的信息溢出现象发现，分析师会根据先公告公司的盈余消息，修正对同行业后公告公司的盈余预测。这种现象在同时跟踪两家公司的分析师中更加显著。进一步的研究表明，分析师行业专长可以增进这一机制。行业经验更丰富的分析师预测调整幅度更大，预测准确度的提升也更明显。分析师的决策过程受规模经济的影响。分析师在同一行业内，跟踪的企业越多，搜集和处理的行业信息越多，对行业内溢出信息的利用越充分。研究结果为分析师提高预测准确性以及投资者改进决策质量提供了依据，也为监管者完善信息披露制度提供了参考。     

An Empirical Analysis of Analysts' Capital Expenditure Forecasts: Evidence from Corporate Investment Efficiency*

We examine whether the information conveyed in a relatively new analyst research output—capital expenditure (capex) forecasts—affects corporate investment efficiency. We find that firms with analyst capex forecasts exhibit higher investment efficiency. This effect is stronger when the forecasts are issued by analysts with higher ability or greater industry knowledge. Moreover, the effect of capex forecasts on investment efficiency varies with the signals they convey about future growth opportunities—positive-growth signals are more effective in reducing underinvestment, while negative-growth signals are more effective in reducing overinvestment. Cross-sectional tests suggest that these effects operate at least in part through both a financing channel and a monitoring channel. Taken together, our results suggest that analysts' capex forecasts convey useful information about firms' growth opportunities to managers and investors, which can facilitate efficient investment.     

分析师的估值模型会影响评级的信息含量吗?

本文基于2014—2018年发布的沪深两市A股上市公司深度研究报告,考察了分析师报告中关于估值方法的描述,探究分析师估值模型的选择是否会对其投资意见的信息含量产生影响。研究发现,分析师采用绝对估值模型能够提高评级调整的市场反应,具有一定的增量价值。进一步分组检验发现,在公司成长性较高、不确定性较大、券商实力较弱、分析师之间的竞争程度较高的情况下,使用绝对估值模型对于提高分析师评级调整的信息含量作用更大。本文的研究结论对于理解分析师估值过程的价值和有效性以及分析师研究报告信息含量的影响因素具有重要意义,并为投资者如何使用和评价分析师研究报告提供了一定的参考。     

‘If it comes from Juazeiro,it’s blessed’! Liquid and solid attachment in systems of object itineraries of pilgrimages

ABSTRACT

Building on an interpretive approach, we employ the multi-sited ethnographic methods of ‘following the thing’ and ‘following the people’ to track the movements of consumers and objects during a Catholic pilgrimage in the Northeast region of Brazil. We find a system of object itineraries that exemplifies how pilgrims liquefy and solidify attachments to objects to relate to God and saints during movements between their home and the sacred site. We expand perceptions by showing how materiality and relevance to the self can be important even in liquidity. Our findings have implications to the understanding of consumption of the spiritual and liquid/solid attachment to sacred objects.     

职业声誉、信息质量与信息吸收效率

中国的审计市场正处于发展阶段,存在大量声誉差异较大的审计事务所,这为研究声誉机制如何为企业带来价值提供了特殊的制度环境。从证券分析师视角出发,以"四大"作为高职业声誉事务所的代表,研究结果发现:聘用"四大"审计的企业,分析师预测精确度较高,预测分歧度较低。这表明聘用高职业声誉的事务所能够提供更高质量的信息,降低了投资者对企业内部价值相关信息的分歧,提高了市场对信息的吸收效率。上述结果为研究声誉在证券市场中的作用机制提供了新的证据。     

中国业绩型股权激励公告前的盈余操纵

股权激励可能会诱发高管的机会主义行为,导致股权激励不但达不到激励高管的目的,反而加剧了代理问题。本文以公告股权激励方案的中国上市公司为样本,对股权激励公告前的盈余操纵进行了分析。采用考虑生命周期和成长性的应计模型发现,在股权计划草案公告前操控性应计显著为负并有下降的趋势,表明激励公司进行了向下的盈余管理,以达到降低股票期权行权条件或限制性股票的解锁条件。     

Inside the “Black Box” of Sell‐Side Financial Analysts

Our objective is to penetrate the “black box” of sell‐side financial analysts by providing new insights into the inputs analysts use and the incentives they face. We survey 365 analysts and conduct 18 follow‐up interviews covering a wide range of topics, including the inputs to analysts’ earnings forecasts and stock recommendations, the value of their industry knowledge, the determinants of their compensation, the career benefits of Institutional Investor All‐Star status, and the factors they consider indicative of high‐quality earnings. One important finding is that private communication with management is a more useful input to analysts’ earnings forecasts and stock recommendations than their own primary research, recent earnings performance, and recent 10‐K and 10‐Q reports. Another notable finding is that issuing earnings forecasts and stock recommendations that are well below the consensus often leads to an increase in analysts’ credibility with their investing clients. We conduct cross‐sectional analyses that highlight the impact of analyst and brokerage characteristics on analysts’ inputs and incentives. Our findings are relevant to investors, managers, analysts, and academic researchers.     

An exploration of the environmental and rider characteristics associated with disability paratransit trip delay

Over the past two decades, a number of studies have been published on the efficiency of paratransit service for persons with disabilities. Although speed, delay, and pick-up duration can significantly affect overall efficiency of paratransit service, studies that have focused on these performance measures have been rare. This study examines how these performance measures are associated with local environmental characteristics such as density and the characteristics of the trip makers. It uses a dataset containing detailed information on a large volume of trips made by the registered clients of Access Link, a paratransit service operated by NJ TRANSIT for persons with disabilities. To measure speed and delay, network distances for 1.91 million trips were estimated by the ArcGIS Network Analyst extension. Analysis of variance and regression models were used to examine the associations between the performance measures and a set of variables pertaining to trips, passengers, and characteristics of pick-up and drop-off locations. Models for the entire study area as well as specific Access Link regions show that there is a significant association between local environmental and personal characteristics of passengers and the performance measures. Evidence was found that higher density of population, employment, and intersections at the local level may have a significant adverse effect on service efficiency because of lower speed and higher delay. Planning implications of the findings are discussed.